Universitario 1–0 Alianza Atletico: Result & Stats

Universitario

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alianza Atletico

Y. Celi 53' (pen)

4/6/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 10Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Universitario56%

×Draw26%

Alianza Atletico17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UniversitarioExpected goals in this matchAlianza Atletico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.68

Universitario

1.48

Alianza Atletico

0.68

Universitario creates 118% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

1.66

creates per match

0.66

0.70

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Universitario

1.66

Alianza Atletico

0.66

allows per match

Universitario

0.70

Alianza Atletico

1.30

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Universitario+0.34scores more

Alianza Atletico-0.26scores less

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario ↓

Alianza Atletico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Universitario or draw

83%

Universitario or Alianza Atletico

74%

Draw or Alianza Atletico

44%

Winning margin

Universitario wins by 2+

29%

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Universitario 1+ goals

77%

Universitario 2+ goals

43%

Universitario 3+ goals

19%

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals

49%

Alianza Atletico 2+ goals

15%

Alianza Atletico 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Universitario (draw refunded)

77%

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.70 · 16 matches

Alianza Atletico away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario attack 1.66 + Alianza Atletico defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.48

Alianza Atletico attack 0.66 + Universitario defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Universitario scores more

56%

level

26%

Alianza Atletico scores more

17%

Universitario at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

H. Calcaterra

Universitario · M

7.7

Match Events

10'

28'

43'

45+3'

46'

N. Cabanillas← S. Portocarrero

53'

Y. CeliPenalty

60'

H. Calcaterra

62'

D. Dorregaray← Á. Valera

62'

M. Pérez← Y. Celi

62'

A. Perleche← C. Vásquez

62'

G. Larios← H. Arakaki

70'

É. Flores← J. Rivera

78'

J. Murrugarra← H. Calcaterra

86'

S. Rebagliati← H. Lupú

90+3'

C. Flores← R. Castro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversitarioAlianza

Overview

62%Possession38%

9Total Shots9

5Corners2

10Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots9

3On Target1

4Off Target5

2Blocked3

5Inside Box2

4Outside Box7

Passing

62%Possession38%

412Total Passes256

288Accurate Passes146

70%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1