Alianza Atletico 0–3 Universitario: Result & Stats

Alianza Atletico

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Universitario

M. Pérez 88', 8'

W. Riveros 45+6'

9/15/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 10Estadio Campeones del '36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Alianza Atletico36%

×Draw29%

Universitario35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza AtleticoExpected goals in this matchUniversitario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.11

Alianza Atletico

1.13

Universitario

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.42

creates per match

1.39

0.84

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Alianza Atletico

1.42

Universitario

1.39

allows per match

Alianza Atletico

0.84

Universitario

0.83

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Alianza Atletico-0.42scores less

Universitario-0.12scores less

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Atletico ↓

Universitario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Alianza Atletico or draw

65%

Alianza Atletico or Universitario

71%

Draw or Universitario

64%

Winning margin

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+

15%

Universitario wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals

68%

Alianza Atletico 2+ goals

31%

Alianza Atletico 3+ goals

11%

Universitario 1+ goals

67%

Universitario 2+ goals

30%

Universitario 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)

51%

Universitario (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Atletico at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.84 · 15 matches

Universitario away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.83 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Atletico attack 1.42 + Universitario defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.13

Universitario attack 1.39 + Alianza Atletico defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Alianza Atletico scores more

36%

level

29%

Universitario scores more

35%

Alianza Atletico at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Alianza Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

M. Pérez

Universitario · M

8.9

Match Events

8'

20'

41'

44'

45+3'

45+6'

46'

R. Espinosa← S. Fernández

46'

A. Perleche← C. Vásquez

63'

N. Cabanillas← S. Portocarrero

64'

J. Murrugarra← J. Concha

64'

G. Dulanto← M. Di Benedetto

71'

G. Costa← É. Flores

77'

G. Larios← S. Arias

77'

J. Mendieta← A. Milesi

80'

J. Rivera← Á. Valera

82'

J. de la Cruz← A. Fernández

88'

M. Pérez↳ A. Polo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaUniversitario

Overview

56%Possession44%

5Total Shots9

3Corners3

16Fouls13

Shots

5Total Shots9

2On Target4

1Off Target2

2Blocked3

3Inside Box7

2Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

384Total Passes318

306Accurate Passes235

80%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2