Alianza Atletico 0–2 Universitario: Result & Stats

Alianza Atletico

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Universitario

J. Rivera 87'

M. Perez 69'

10/1/2025

Primera División · Clausura - 12Estadio Campeones del 36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Alianza Atletico36%

×Draw29%

Universitario35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza AtleticoExpected goals in this matchUniversitario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.11

Alianza Atletico

1.13

Universitario

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.42

creates per match

1.39

0.84

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Alianza Atletico

1.42

Universitario

1.39

allows per match

Alianza Atletico

0.84

Universitario

0.83

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Alianza Atletico-0.42scores less

Universitario-0.12scores less

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Atletico ↓

Universitario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Alianza Atletico or draw

65%

Alianza Atletico or Universitario

71%

Draw or Universitario

64%

Winning margin

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+

15%

Universitario wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals

68%

Alianza Atletico 2+ goals

31%

Alianza Atletico 3+ goals

11%

Universitario 1+ goals

67%

Universitario 2+ goals

30%

Universitario 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)

51%

Universitario (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Atletico at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.84 · 15 matches

Universitario away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.83 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Atletico attack 1.42 + Universitario defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.13

Universitario attack 1.39 + Alianza Atletico defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Alianza Atletico scores more

36%

level

29%

Universitario scores more

35%

Alianza Atletico at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Alianza Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

A. Santamaria

Universitario · D

8.2

Match Events

65'

J. Rivera← E. Flores

65'

J. Carabali← C. Inga

65'

J. Castillo← J. Murrugarra

67'

L. Olmedo← C. Vasquez

67'

E. Perleche← J. Perez

69'

69'

73'

74'

76'

81'

82'

M. Perez← G. A. Larios Saavedra

87'

J. Rivera↳ J. Concha

88'

A. Cossio← A. Gordillo

88'

Diego Churin← A. Valera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaUniversitario

Overview

34%Possession66%

3Total Shots16

0.13Expected Goals (xG)1.44

2Corners6

11Fouls15

Shots

3Total Shots16

0On Target4

2Off Target7

1Blocked5

1Inside Box11

2Outside Box5

Passing

34%Possession66%

228Total Passes448

111Accurate Passes337

49%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls15

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides4

Match Recap: Alianza Atletico vs Universitario

Universitario beat Alianza Atletico 2-0 in Primera División on October 1, 2025.

Goals: M. Perez (69'), J. Rivera (87').

Universitario controlled possession (66%) and registered 16 shots to 3.

The match was played at Estadio Campeones del 36 in Sullana.

Alianza Atletico vs Universitario — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Alianza Atletico vs Universitario