Universitario 2–0 ADT: Result & Stats

Universitario

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

ADT

M. Perez Guedes 57'

A. Valera 55'

2/1/2026

Primera División · Apertura - 1Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Universitario57%

×Draw24%

ADT20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UniversitarioExpected goals in this matchADT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.91

Universitario

1.73

ADT

0.91

Universitario creates 90% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 78 away

1.83

creates per match

0.97

0.84

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Universitario

1.83

ADT

0.97

allows per match

Universitario

0.84

ADT

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universitario+0.00on par

ADT+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario ↓

ADT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Universitario or draw

80%

Universitario or ADT

76%

Draw or ADT

43%

Winning margin

Universitario wins by 2+

32%

ADT wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Universitario 1+ goals

82%

Universitario 2+ goals

52%

Universitario 3+ goals

25%

ADT 1+ goals

60%

ADT 2+ goals

23%

ADT 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Universitario (draw refunded)

74%

ADT (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.84 · 147 matches

ADT away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.62 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario attack 1.83 + ADT defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.73

ADT attack 0.97 + Universitario defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Universitario scores more

57%

level

24%

ADT scores more

20%

Universitario at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

M. Perez Guedes

Universitario · M

8.2

Match Events

23'

Aldo Corzo

37'

Juan Valencia

38'

L. Alzugaray← E. Flores

55'

A. Valera↳ J. Concha

57'

M. Perez Guedes↳ J. Concha

62'

J. Murrugarra← J. Castillo

62'

V. Cedron← C. Cabello

64'

John Narváez

70'

Marco Aldair Rodríguez

70'

L. E. Benites Vargas← H. Arakaki

71'

J. Alvino← A. Ojeda

71'

E. Garcia← A. Rodriguez

75'

H. Rengifo← J. Bauman

77'

H. Calcaterra← M. Perez Guedes

78'

78'

80'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversitarioADT

Overview

54%Possession46%

13Total Shots2

13Corners3

19Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots2

5On Target1

5Off Target1

3Blocked1

11Inside Box0

2Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

394Total Passes354

324Accurate Passes281

82%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

19Fouls12

1Yellow Cards5

1Offsides2