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ADT vs Universitario — Primera División 2021

ADT
ADT
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Universitario
Universitario
A. Santamaria 43' (OG)
A. Valera 78'
M. Di Benedetto 57'
10/26/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 16Estadio Union Tarma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

ADT38%
×Draw29%
Universitario33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADT
1.18
Universitario
1.07

ADT creates 10% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 94 away

creates per match

ADT
1.49
Universitario
1.26

allows per match

ADT
0.88
Universitario
0.87

finishing

ADT+0.00on par
Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADT ↓

Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

ADT or draw
67%
ADT or Universitario
71%
Draw or Universitario
62%

Winning margin

ADT wins by 2+
16%
Universitario wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

ADT 1+ goals
69%
ADT 2+ goals
33%
ADT 3+ goals
12%
Universitario 1+ goals
66%
Universitario 2+ goals
29%
Universitario 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

ADT (draw refunded)
54%
Universitario (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADT at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.88 · 80 matches

Universitario away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.87 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADT attack 1.49 + Universitario defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.18

Universitario attack 1.26 + ADT defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

ADT scores more
38%
level
29%
Universitario scores more
33%

ADT at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "ADT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
A. ValeraUniversitarioUniversitario · F
8.2

Match Events

25'
Alex ValeraGoal cancelled
26'
Rodrigo Ureña
26'
Andy Polo
43'
A. SantamariaOwn goal
52'
José CarabalíPenalty cancelled
53'
José Carabalí
57'
M. Di Benedetto↳ A. Valera
60'
J. Velez← J. Concha
60'
E. Flores← J. Rivera
68'
J. Castillo← M. Perez
78'
D. Montenegro← J. Narvaez
78'
A. Valera↳ A. Polo
85'
N. Bazan← A. Robles
90'
Sebastián Britos
90'
Sebastián Britos
90+6'
H. Rengifo← F. Bersano
90+5'
M. Vargas←
90+6'
C. Inga← J. Carabali

Possession

51%ADT

Shots

18ADT

Pass accuracy

48%ADT

Statistics

ADTUniversitario
Overview
51%Possession49%
18Total Shots9
1.39Expected Goals (xG)0.96
6Corners4
6Fouls8
Shots
18Total Shots9
5On Target5
8Off Target3
5Blocked1
6Inside Box7
12Outside Box2
Passing
51%Possession49%
367Total Passes344
285Accurate Passes286
78%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
6Fouls8
0Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
3Offsides0

Primera División: ADT 1–2 Universitario

Universitario beat ADT 2-1 in Primera División on October 26, 2025.

Goals: A. Santamaria (43' o.g.), M. Di Benedetto (57'), A. Valera (78').

ADT controlled possession (51%) and registered 18 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Union Tarma in Tarma.