Universitario 2–1 ADT: Result & Stats

Universitario

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

ADT

Á. Valera 53', 29' (pen)

M. Di Benedetto 57' (OG)

10/20/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 14Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Universitario62%

×Draw22%

ADT16%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UniversitarioExpected goals in this matchADT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.79

Universitario

1.83

ADT

0.79

Universitario creates 132% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 78 away

2.05

creates per match

0.97

0.62

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Universitario

2.05

ADT

0.97

allows per match

Universitario

0.62

ADT

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universitario+0.00on par

ADT+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario ↓

ADT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Universitario or draw

84%

Universitario or ADT

78%

Draw or ADT

38%

Winning margin

Universitario wins by 2+

36%

ADT wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Universitario 1+ goals

84%

Universitario 2+ goals

54%

Universitario 3+ goals

28%

ADT 1+ goals

55%

ADT 2+ goals

19%

ADT 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Universitario (draw refunded)

80%

ADT (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.62 · 94 matches

ADT away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.62 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario attack 2.05 + ADT defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.83

ADT attack 0.97 + Universitario defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Universitario scores more

62%

level

22%

ADT scores more

16%

Universitario at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Á. Valera

Universitario · F

8.5

Match Events

12'

Martín Pérez GuedesPenalty cancelled

26'

Horacio CalcaterraPenalty confirmed

28'

Yordi Vílchez

29'

Á. ValeraPenalty

41'

John Narváez

53'

Á. Valera

56'

A. Quiñonez← J. Pósito

57'

M. Di BenedettoOwn goal

61'

S. Portocarrero← N. Cabanillas

62'

J. Concha← H. Calcaterra

66'

Alex Valera

67'

G. Costa← É. Flores

68'

J. Murrugarra← R. Ureña

70'

L. da Silva← J. Rojas

76'

J. Rivera← Á. Valera

78'

Aldo Corzo

82'

José Rivera

88'

J. Gonzáles← L. Pérez

90'

Andy Polo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversitarioADT

Overview

44%Possession56%

14Total Shots10

4Corners1

15Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots10

4On Target2

9Off Target4

1Blocked4

13Inside Box4

1Outside Box6

Passing

44%Possession56%

299Total Passes387

206Accurate Passes291

69%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls11

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0