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Universidad de Concepcion vs Magallanes — Primera B 2026

Universidad de Concepcion
Universidad de Concepcion
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Magallanes
Magallanes
3/18/2024Primera BPrimera B · Round 4Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Universidad de Concepcion41%
×Draw27%
Magallanes31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universidad de Concepcion
1.31
Magallanes
1.11

Universidad de Concepcion creates 18% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 105 away

creates per match

Universidad de Concepcion
1.42
Magallanes
1.13

allows per match

Universidad de Concepcion
1.10
Magallanes
1.21

finishing

Universidad de Concepcion+0.00on par
Magallanes+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad de Concepcion ↓

Magallanes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Universidad de Concepcion or draw
69%
Universidad de Concepcion or Magallanes
73%
Draw or Magallanes
59%

Winning margin

Universidad de Concepcion wins by 2+
19%
Magallanes wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Universidad de Concepcion 1+ goals
73%
Universidad de Concepcion 2+ goals
38%
Universidad de Concepcion 3+ goals
14%
Magallanes 1+ goals
67%
Magallanes 2+ goals
30%
Magallanes 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Universidad de Concepcion (draw refunded)
57%
Magallanes (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad de Concepcion at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.10 · 77 matches

Magallanes away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.21 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad de Concepcion attack 1.42 + Magallanes defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.31

Magallanes attack 1.13 + Universidad de Concepcion defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Universidad de Concepcion scores more
41%
level
27%
Magallanes scores more
31%

Universidad de Concepcion at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Universidad de Concepcion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Universidad de Concepcion 2 – 1 Magallanes

Universidad de Concepcion beat Magallanes 2-1 in Primera B on March 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo in Concepción.