Magallanes 0–0 Universidad de Concepcion

Magallanes

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Universidad de Concepcion

7/31/2024

Primera B · Round 19Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Magallanes48%

×Draw27%

Universidad de Concepcion26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MagallanesExpected goals in this matchUniversidad de Concepcion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.98

Magallanes

1.44

Universidad de Concepcion

0.98

Magallanes creates 47% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 77 away

1.50

creates per match

0.99

0.97

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Magallanes

1.50

Universidad de Concepcion

0.99

allows per match

Magallanes

0.97

Universidad de Concepcion

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Magallanes+0.00on par

Universidad de Concepcion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magallanes ↓

Universidad de Concepcion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Magallanes or draw

74%

Magallanes or Universidad de Concepcion

73%

Draw or Universidad de Concepcion

52%

Winning margin

Magallanes wins by 2+

23%

Universidad de Concepcion wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Magallanes 1+ goals

76%

Magallanes 2+ goals

42%

Magallanes 3+ goals

18%

Universidad de Concepcion 1+ goals

62%

Universidad de Concepcion 2+ goals

26%

Universidad de Concepcion 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Magallanes (draw refunded)

65%

Universidad de Concepcion (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magallanes at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.97 · 103 matches

Universidad de Concepcion away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.38 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magallanes attack 1.50 + Universidad de Concepcion defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Universidad de Concepcion attack 0.99 + Magallanes defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Magallanes scores more

48%

level

27%

Universidad de Concepcion scores more

26%

Magallanes at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Magallanes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff