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Magallanes vs Universidad de Concepcion — Copa Chile 2019

Magallanes
Magallanes
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Universidad de Concepcion
Universidad de Concepcionadvanced
10/4/2023Copa ChileCopa Chile · Semi-finalsEstadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Magallanes34%
×Draw25%
Universidad de Concepcion41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Magallanes
1.32
Universidad de Concepcion
1.47

Universidad de Concepcion creates 11% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 16 away

creates per match

Magallanes
1.52
Universidad de Concepcion
1.94

allows per match

Magallanes
1.00
Universidad de Concepcion
1.13

finishing

Magallanes+0.00on par
Universidad de Concepcion+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magallanes ↓

Universidad de Concepcion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Magallanes or draw
59%
Magallanes or Universidad de Concepcion
75%
Draw or Universidad de Concepcion
66%

Winning margin

Magallanes wins by 2+
15%
Universidad de Concepcion wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Magallanes 1+ goals
73%
Magallanes 2+ goals
38%
Magallanes 3+ goals
15%
Universidad de Concepcion 1+ goals
77%
Universidad de Concepcion 2+ goals
43%
Universidad de Concepcion 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Magallanes (draw refunded)
45%
Universidad de Concepcion (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magallanes at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches

Universidad de Concepcion away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magallanes attack 1.52 + Universidad de Concepcion defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.32

Universidad de Concepcion attack 1.94 + Magallanes defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Magallanes scores more
34%
level
25%
Universidad de Concepcion scores more
41%

Universidad de Concepcion at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Universidad de Concepcion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Magallanes vs Universidad de Concepcion

Universidad de Concepcion beat Magallanes 2-1 in Copa Chile on October 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in San Bernardo.