Universidad de Concepcion 1–1 Huachipato

Universidad de Concepcion

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Huachipato

S. Pino 90'

J. Sánchez 45+1'

8/18/2019

Primera División · Round 18Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo (Concepción)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Universidad de Concepcion44%

×Draw27%

Huachipato29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad de ConcepcionExpected goals in this matchHuachipato

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.08

Universidad de Concepcion

1.39

Huachipato

1.08

Universidad de Concepcion creates 29% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 114 away

1.21

creates per match

1.03

1.12

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Universidad de Concepcion

1.21

Huachipato

1.03

allows per match

Universidad de Concepcion

1.12

Huachipato

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad de Concepcion+0.00on par

Huachipato+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad de Concepcion ↓

Huachipato →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Universidad de Concepcion or draw

71%

Universidad de Concepcion or Huachipato

73%

Draw or Huachipato

56%

Winning margin

Universidad de Concepcion wins by 2+

21%

Huachipato wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Universidad de Concepcion 1+ goals

75%

Universidad de Concepcion 2+ goals

40%

Universidad de Concepcion 3+ goals

16%

Huachipato 1+ goals

66%

Huachipato 2+ goals

29%

Huachipato 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Universidad de Concepcion (draw refunded)

60%

Huachipato (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad de Concepcion at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.12 · 42 matches

Huachipato away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.57 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad de Concepcion attack 1.21 + Huachipato defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.39

Huachipato attack 1.03 + Universidad de Concepcion defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Universidad de Concepcion scores more

44%

level

27%

Huachipato scores more

29%

Universidad de Concepcion at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Universidad de Concepcion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

S. Pino

Universidad de Concepcion

7.7

Match Events

21'

C. Sepulveda

38'

V. Retamal← F. Manríquez

45+1'

J. Sánchez

72'

I. Tapia← N. Baeza

75'

S. Pino← F. Cordero

75'

F. Barrientos← D. Pérez

84'

L. Povea← C. Sepúlveda

90'

90'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversidadHuachipato

Overview

61%Possession39%

23Total Shots7

7Corners4

9Fouls15

Shots

23Total Shots7

6On Target2

12Off Target4

5Blocked1

17Inside Box5

6Outside Box2

Passing

61%Possession39%

444Total Passes273

338Accurate Passes151

76%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

6Offsides0