Huachipato 1–0 Universidad de Concepcion

Huachipato

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Universidad de Concepcion

F. Pereyra 63'

5/19/2019

Primera División · Round 13Las Higueras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Huachipato49%

×Draw25%

Universidad de Concepcion26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuachipatoExpected goals in this matchUniversidad de Concepcion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.07

Huachipato

1.59

Universidad de Concepcion

1.07

Huachipato creates 49% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 44 away

1.45

creates per match

1.11

1.03

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Huachipato

1.45

Universidad de Concepcion

1.11

allows per match

Huachipato

1.03

Universidad de Concepcion

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huachipato+0.00on par

Universidad de Concepcion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huachipato ↓

Universidad de Concepcion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Huachipato or draw

74%

Huachipato or Universidad de Concepcion

75%

Draw or Universidad de Concepcion

51%

Winning margin

Huachipato wins by 2+

26%

Universidad de Concepcion wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Huachipato 1+ goals

80%

Huachipato 2+ goals

47%

Huachipato 3+ goals

21%

Universidad de Concepcion 1+ goals

66%

Universidad de Concepcion 2+ goals

29%

Universidad de Concepcion 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Huachipato (draw refunded)

66%

Universidad de Concepcion (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huachipato at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.03 · 118 matches

Universidad de Concepcion away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.73 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huachipato attack 1.45 + Universidad de Concepcion defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.59

Universidad de Concepcion attack 1.11 + Huachipato defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Huachipato scores more

49%

level

25%

Universidad de Concepcion scores more

26%

Huachipato at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Huachipato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

F. Pereyra

Huachipato · D

8.1

Match Events

11'

27'

28'

44'

49'

53'

60'

A. Succar← A. Blondell

63'

F. Pereyra↳ J. Córdova

68'

J. Verdugo← N. Baeza

68'

J. Martínez← H. Droguett

73'

Alexis Rolín

74'

Joaquín Verdugo

76'

Claudio Sepulveda

80'

N. Maturana← A. Camargo

86'

Alexander Succar

90+3'

L. Povea← J. Urzúa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuachipatoUniversidad

Overview

47%Possession53%

17Total Shots13

7Corners3

18Fouls13

Shots

17Total Shots13

4On Target5

6Off Target6

7Blocked2

14Inside Box6

3Outside Box7

Passing

47%Possession53%

335Total Passes374

253Accurate Passes273

76%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls13

6Yellow Cards4

3Offsides4