Huachipato 5–1 Universidad de Concepcion

Huachipato

FT

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Universidad de Concepcion

C. Sepulveda 83'

M. Rodriguez 79'

C. Martinez 70'

N. Vargas 67'

S. Silva 37'

A. Urzi 6'

4/7/2026

Primera División · Round 8Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Huachipato49%

×Draw25%

Universidad de Concepcion26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuachipatoExpected goals in this matchUniversidad de Concepcion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.07

Huachipato

1.59

Universidad de Concepcion

1.07

Huachipato creates 49% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 44 away

1.45

creates per match

1.11

1.03

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Huachipato

1.45

Universidad de Concepcion

1.11

allows per match

Huachipato

1.03

Universidad de Concepcion

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huachipato+0.00on par

Universidad de Concepcion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huachipato ↓

Universidad de Concepcion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Huachipato or draw

74%

Huachipato or Universidad de Concepcion

75%

Draw or Universidad de Concepcion

51%

Winning margin

Huachipato wins by 2+

26%

Universidad de Concepcion wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Huachipato 1+ goals

80%

Huachipato 2+ goals

47%

Huachipato 3+ goals

21%

Universidad de Concepcion 1+ goals

66%

Universidad de Concepcion 2+ goals

29%

Universidad de Concepcion 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Huachipato (draw refunded)

66%

Universidad de Concepcion (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huachipato at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.03 · 118 matches

Universidad de Concepcion away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.73 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huachipato attack 1.45 + Universidad de Concepcion defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.59

Universidad de Concepcion attack 1.11 + Huachipato defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Huachipato scores more

49%

level

25%

Universidad de Concepcion scores more

26%

Huachipato at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Huachipato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

C. Martinez

Huachipato · F

8.3

Match Events

6'

A. Urzi↳ C. Waterman

27'

Claudio Sepúlveda

37'

S. Silva↳ M. Rodriguez

46'

C. Martinez← H. Antinirre

46'

A. Diaz← A. Urzi

63'

M. Briceno← E. Canete

63'

L. Altamirano← J. Figueroa

67'

N. Vargas↳ C. Sepulveda

69'

Santiago Silva

69'

A. Uribe← C. Mesias

70'

C. Martinez↳ L. Altamirano

79'

M. Rodriguez

80'

M. A. Leon Munoz← M. Rodriguez

82'

Bryan Ogaz

82'

M. Ramirez← J. Fuentealba

83'

C. Sepulveda

86'

M. Torrejon← C. Sepulveda

88'

Martín Torrejón

90'

Nelson Guillermo Guaiquil

90+1'

Jorge Espejo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuachipatoUniversidad

Overview

46%Possession54%

17Total Shots18

2.26Expected Goals (xG)1.06

2Corners3

15Fouls9

Shots

17Total Shots18

12On Target6

5Off Target6

1Blocked6

10Inside Box9

7Outside Box9

Passing

46%Possession54%

388Total Passes468

303Accurate Passes383

78%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

5Saves7

Discipline

15Fouls9

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0