Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Limache — Primera B 2026

Universidad de Concepcion
Universidad de Concepcion
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportes Limache
Deportes Limache
8/5/2024Primera BPrimera B · Round 20Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Universidad de Concepcion36%
×Draw25%
Deportes Limache38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universidad de Concepcion
1.39
Deportes Limache
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 17 away

creates per match

Universidad de Concepcion
1.42
Deportes Limache
1.76

allows per match

Universidad de Concepcion
1.10
Deportes Limache
1.35

finishing

Universidad de Concepcion+0.00on par
Deportes Limache+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad de Concepcion ↓

Deportes Limache →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Universidad de Concepcion or draw
62%
Universidad de Concepcion or Deportes Limache
75%
Draw or Deportes Limache
64%

Winning margin

Universidad de Concepcion wins by 2+
17%
Deportes Limache wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Universidad de Concepcion 1+ goals
75%
Universidad de Concepcion 2+ goals
40%
Universidad de Concepcion 3+ goals
16%
Deportes Limache 1+ goals
76%
Deportes Limache 2+ goals
42%
Deportes Limache 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Universidad de Concepcion (draw refunded)
49%
Deportes Limache (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad de Concepcion at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.10 · 77 matches

Deportes Limache away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad de Concepcion attack 1.42 + Deportes Limache defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.39

Deportes Limache attack 1.76 + Universidad de Concepcion defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Universidad de Concepcion scores more
36%
level
25%
Deportes Limache scores more
38%

Deportes Limache at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Deportes Limache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Universidad de Concepcion 2–0 Deportes Limache

Universidad de Concepcion beat Deportes Limache 2-0 in Primera B on August 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo in Concepción.