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Deportes Limache vs Universidad de Concepcion — Primera División 2018

Deportes Limache
Deportes Limache
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Universidad de Concepcion
Universidad de Concepcion
4/18/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 10Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Deportes Limache54%
×Draw24%
Universidad de Concepcion22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportes Limache
1.67
Universidad de Concepcion
0.97

Deportes Limache creates 72% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 52 away

creates per match

Deportes Limache
1.64
Universidad de Concepcion
1.08

allows per match

Deportes Limache
0.86
Universidad de Concepcion
1.69

finishing

Deportes Limache+0.00on par
Universidad de Concepcion+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Limache ↓

Universidad de Concepcion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Deportes Limache or draw
78%
Deportes Limache or Universidad de Concepcion
76%
Draw or Universidad de Concepcion
46%

Winning margin

Deportes Limache wins by 2+
29%
Universidad de Concepcion wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportes Limache 1+ goals
81%
Deportes Limache 2+ goals
50%
Deportes Limache 3+ goals
23%
Universidad de Concepcion 1+ goals
62%
Universidad de Concepcion 2+ goals
25%
Universidad de Concepcion 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportes Limache (draw refunded)
71%
Universidad de Concepcion (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Limache at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

Universidad de Concepcion away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.69 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Limache attack 1.64 + Universidad de Concepcion defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.67

Universidad de Concepcion attack 1.08 + Deportes Limache defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Deportes Limache scores more
54%
level
24%
Universidad de Concepcion scores more
22%

Deportes Limache at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Deportes Limache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportes Limache vs Universidad de Concepcion

Deportes Limache beat Universidad de Concepcion 3-0 in Primera División on April 18, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza in Limache.