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Deportes Limache vs Universidad de Concepcion — Primera B 2026

Deportes Limache
Deportes Limache
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Universidad de Concepcion
Universidad de Concepcion
3/24/2024Primera BPrimera B · Round 5Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Deportes Limache41%
×Draw27%
Universidad de Concepcion32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportes Limache
1.33
Universidad de Concepcion
1.16

Deportes Limache creates 15% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 77 away

creates per match

Deportes Limache
1.28
Universidad de Concepcion
0.99

allows per match

Deportes Limache
1.33
Universidad de Concepcion
1.38

finishing

Deportes Limache+0.00on par
Universidad de Concepcion+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Limache ↓

Universidad de Concepcion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Deportes Limache or draw
68%
Deportes Limache or Universidad de Concepcion
73%
Draw or Universidad de Concepcion
59%

Winning margin

Deportes Limache wins by 2+
19%
Universidad de Concepcion wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Deportes Limache 1+ goals
74%
Deportes Limache 2+ goals
38%
Deportes Limache 3+ goals
15%
Universidad de Concepcion 1+ goals
69%
Universidad de Concepcion 2+ goals
32%
Universidad de Concepcion 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Deportes Limache (draw refunded)
56%
Universidad de Concepcion (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Limache at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Universidad de Concepcion away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.38 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Limache attack 1.28 + Universidad de Concepcion defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Universidad de Concepcion attack 0.99 + Deportes Limache defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportes Limache scores more
41%
level
27%
Universidad de Concepcion scores more
32%

Deportes Limache at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportes Limache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Deportes Limache 0–1 Universidad de Concepcion

Universidad de Concepcion beat Deportes Limache 1-0 in Primera B on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar in La Calera.