Universidad de Chile 2–1 Huachipato: Result & Stats

Universidad de Chile

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Huachipato

N. Guerra 88'

L. Fernández 18' (pen)

T. Vecino 58'

9/24/2024

Primera División · Round 25Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Universidad de Chile65%

×Draw20%

Huachipato14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad de ChileExpected goals in this matchHuachipato

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

0.85

Universidad de Chile

2.07

Huachipato

0.85

Universidad de Chile creates 144% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

2.18

creates per match

0.85

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Universidad de Chile

2.18

Huachipato

0.85

allows per match

Universidad de Chile

0.85

Huachipato

1.96

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Universidad de Chile-0.18scores less

Huachipato-0.05on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad de Chile ↓

Huachipato →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Universidad de Chile or draw

86%

Universidad de Chile or Huachipato

80%

Draw or Huachipato

35%

Winning margin

Universidad de Chile wins by 2+

41%

Huachipato wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Universidad de Chile 1+ goals

87%

Universidad de Chile 2+ goals

61%

Universidad de Chile 3+ goals

34%

Huachipato 1+ goals

57%

Huachipato 2+ goals

21%

Huachipato 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Universidad de Chile (draw refunded)

82%

Huachipato (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad de Chile at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.85 · 8 matches

Huachipato away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.96 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad de Chile attack 2.18 + Huachipato defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.07

Huachipato attack 0.85 + Universidad de Chile defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Universidad de Chile scores more

65%

level

20%

Huachipato scores more

14%

Universidad de Chile at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Universidad de Chile will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

L. Fernández

Universidad de Chile · F

8.3

Match Events

15'

Cristián PalaciosPenalty confirmed

18'

L. FernándezPenalty

27'

Carlo Villanueva

42'

I. Vásquez← M. Sepúlveda

46'

C. Martínez← J. Brea

48'

Fabián HormazábalPenalty confirmed

58'

Cris Martínez

58'

T. Vecino↳ C. Martínez

71'

L. Assadi← I. Poblete

72'

Benjamín Gazzolo

77'

N. Guerra← M. Díaz

79'

J. Martínez← C. Villanueva

84'

G. Montes← C. Sepúlveda

84'

B. Palmezano← T. Vecino

88'

N. Guerra↳ L. Fernández

90+2'

Jimmy Martínez

90+1'

M. Gutiérrez← R. Malanca

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversidadHuachipato

Overview

73%Possession27%

21Total Shots3

7Corners2

7Fouls13

Shots

21Total Shots3

5On Target2

11Off Target1

5Blocked0

14Inside Box0

7Outside Box3

Passing

73%Possession27%

575Total Passes216

515Accurate Passes137

90%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls13

0Yellow Cards4

4Offsides2