Huachipato 2–1 Universidad de Chile: Result & Stats

Huachipato

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Universidad de Chile

R. Malanca 81'

M. Gutierrez 35'

Eduardo Vargas 13'

2/8/2026

Primera División · Round 2Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Huachipato47%

×Draw24%

Universidad de Chile29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuachipatoExpected goals in this matchUniversidad de Chile

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.30

Huachipato

1.70

Universidad de Chile

1.30

Huachipato creates 31% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

1.75

creates per match

1.47

1.13

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Huachipato

1.75

Universidad de Chile

1.47

allows per match

Huachipato

1.13

Universidad de Chile

1.65

+0.45scores more than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Huachipato+0.45scores more

Universidad de Chile-0.03on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huachipato ↓

Universidad de Chile →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Huachipato or draw

71%

Huachipato or Universidad de Chile

76%

Draw or Universidad de Chile

53%

Winning margin

Huachipato wins by 2+

25%

Universidad de Chile wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Huachipato 1+ goals

82%

Huachipato 2+ goals

51%

Huachipato 3+ goals

24%

Universidad de Chile 1+ goals

73%

Universidad de Chile 2+ goals

37%

Universidad de Chile 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Huachipato (draw refunded)

61%

Universidad de Chile (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huachipato at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.13 · 5 matches

Universidad de Chile away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.65 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huachipato attack 1.75 + Universidad de Chile defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.70

Universidad de Chile attack 1.47 + Huachipato defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Huachipato scores more

47%

level

24%

Universidad de Chile scores more

29%

Huachipato at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Huachipato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

R. Malanca

Huachipato · D

8.6

Match Events

13'

Eduardo Vargas

35'

M. Gutierrez

44'

Claudio Sepúlveda

59'

M. G. Guerrero Pena← J. Altamirano

59'

M. Morales← D. Vargas

71'

J. Castro← M. Rodriguez

71'

M. A. Leon Munoz← L. Velasquez

72'

Fabián Hormazábal

75'

Maximiliano GutiérrezPenalty confirmed

76'

Lionel AltamiranoMissed penalty

81'

R. Malanca↳ N. Vargas

84'

J. Carcamo← N. Vargas

84'

C. G. Torres Gaete← E. Canete

84'

I. A. Vasquez Gonzalez← N. Ramirez

86'

Sebastián Mella

90+5'

S. Melgarejo← M. Gutierrez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuachipatoUniversidad

Overview

39%Possession61%

12Total Shots9

7Corners4

9Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots9

9On Target2

1Off Target5

2Blocked2

7Inside Box6

5Outside Box3

Passing

39%Possession61%

309Total Passes497

232Accurate Passes404

75%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

9Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0