Huachipato 0–4 Universidad de Chile: Result & Stats

Huachipato

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Universidad de Chile

L. Pons 88'

C. Palacios 60', 36'

L. Fernández 26'

4/28/2024

Primera División · Round 10Estadio CAP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Huachipato47%

×Draw24%

Universidad de Chile29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuachipatoExpected goals in this matchUniversidad de Chile

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.30

Huachipato

1.70

Universidad de Chile

1.30

Huachipato creates 31% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

1.75

creates per match

1.47

1.13

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Huachipato

1.75

Universidad de Chile

1.47

allows per match

Huachipato

1.13

Universidad de Chile

1.65

+0.45scores more than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Huachipato+0.45scores more

Universidad de Chile-0.03on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huachipato ↓

Universidad de Chile →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Huachipato or draw

71%

Huachipato or Universidad de Chile

76%

Draw or Universidad de Chile

53%

Winning margin

Huachipato wins by 2+

25%

Universidad de Chile wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Huachipato 1+ goals

82%

Huachipato 2+ goals

51%

Huachipato 3+ goals

24%

Universidad de Chile 1+ goals

73%

Universidad de Chile 2+ goals

37%

Universidad de Chile 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Huachipato (draw refunded)

61%

Universidad de Chile (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huachipato at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.13 · 5 matches

Universidad de Chile away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.65 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huachipato attack 1.75 + Universidad de Chile defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.70

Universidad de Chile attack 1.47 + Huachipato defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Huachipato scores more

47%

level

24%

Universidad de Chile scores more

29%

Huachipato at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Huachipato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

C. Palacios

Universidad de Chile · F

9.2

Match Events

26'

L. Fernández

35'

Matías Zaldivia

36'

C. Palacios↳ L. Fernández

38'

Marcelo Morales

41'

G. Montes← M. Briceño

45+2'

Claudio Sepúlveda

46'

M. Rodríguez← D. Oyarzún

46'

S. Silva← C. Sepúlveda

46'

J. Castro← M. Morales

56'

Jimmy MartínezPenalty cancelled

60'

C. Palacios↳ M. Díaz

63'

Cristian PalaciosGoal confirmed

66'

Cris Martínez

68'

Ignacio Tapia

76'

F. Mateos← M. Guerrero

80'

J. Brea← M. Gutiérrez

87'

D. Retamal← J. Castro

87'

L. Pons← C. Palacios

88'

L. Pons↳ L. Fernández

90+2'

Gonzalo Montes

90+5'

David Retamal

90'

E. Ojeda← M. Díaz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuachipatoUniversidad

Overview

49%Possession51%

13Total Shots16

4Corners5

13Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots16

2On Target5

8Off Target7

3Blocked4

6Inside Box13

7Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

343Total Passes369

259Accurate Passes276

76%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls12

3Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1