Universidad de Chile 4–0 D. La Serena

Universidad de Chile

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

D. La Serena

4/5/2026

Primera División · Round 8Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Universidad de Chile52%

×Draw25%

D. La Serena23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad de ChileExpected goals in this matchD. La Serena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.00

Universidad de Chile

1.64

D. La Serena

1.00

Universidad de Chile creates 64% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 70 away

1.57

creates per match

1.00

1.01

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Universidad de Chile

1.57

D. La Serena

1.00

allows per match

Universidad de Chile

1.01

D. La Serena

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad de Chile+0.00on par

D. La Serena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad de Chile ↓

D. La Serena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Universidad de Chile or draw

77%

Universidad de Chile or D. La Serena

75%

Draw or D. La Serena

48%

Winning margin

Universidad de Chile wins by 2+

28%

D. La Serena wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Universidad de Chile 1+ goals

81%

Universidad de Chile 2+ goals

49%

Universidad de Chile 3+ goals

23%

D. La Serena 1+ goals

63%

D. La Serena 2+ goals

26%

D. La Serena 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Universidad de Chile (draw refunded)

69%

D. La Serena (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad de Chile at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.01 · 127 matches

D. La Serena away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.71 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad de Chile attack 1.57 + D. La Serena defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.64

D. La Serena attack 1.00 + Universidad de Chile defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Universidad de Chile scores more

52%

level

25%

D. La Serena scores more

23%

Universidad de Chile at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Universidad de Chile will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universidad de Chile vs D. La Serena

Universidad de Chile beat D. La Serena 4-0 in Primera División on April 5, 2026.

The match was played at Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos in Santiago de Chile.

Universidad de Chile vs D. La Serena — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Universidad de Chile vs D. La Serena