D. La Serena 1–1 Universidad de Chile

D. La Serena

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Universidad de Chile

J. Vargas 64'

L. Di Yorio 86'

9/28/2025

Primera División · Round 23Estadio La Portada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

D. La Serena36%

×Draw26%

Universidad de Chile37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

D. La SerenaExpected goals in this matchUniversidad de Chile

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.31

D. La Serena

1.29

Universidad de Chile

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 128 away

1.20

creates per match

1.27

1.35

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

D. La Serena

1.20

Universidad de Chile

1.27

allows per match

D. La Serena

1.35

Universidad de Chile

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

D. La Serena+0.00on par

Universidad de Chile+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. La Serena ↓

Universidad de Chile →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

D. La Serena or draw

63%

D. La Serena or Universidad de Chile

74%

Draw or Universidad de Chile

64%

Winning margin

D. La Serena wins by 2+

16%

Universidad de Chile wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

D. La Serena 1+ goals

72%

D. La Serena 2+ goals

37%

D. La Serena 3+ goals

14%

Universidad de Chile 1+ goals

73%

Universidad de Chile 2+ goals

38%

Universidad de Chile 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

D. La Serena (draw refunded)

49%

Universidad de Chile (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. La Serena at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 71 matches

Universidad de Chile away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.37 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. La Serena attack 1.20 + Universidad de Chile defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.29

Universidad de Chile attack 1.27 + D. La Serena defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

D. La Serena scores more

36%

level

26%

Universidad de Chile scores more

37%

Universidad de Chile at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Universidad de Chile will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

E. Moreira

D. La Serena · F

8.0

Match Events

-5'

Fabián Cerda

13'

Sebastián Díaz

38'

G. A. Jara Gonzalez← S. Diaz

45'

Andrés Zanini

45+10'

David Retamal

46'

J. Altamirano← A. Diaz

46'

L. Assadi← D. Retamal

55'

L. Di Yorio← R. Contreras

63'

F. Hormazabal← N. Fernandez

64'

J. Vargas↳ E. Moreira

71'

Fabián Hormazábal

71'

M. Zaldivia← I. Tapia

72'

Fabián Hormazábal

72'

Fabián Hormazábal

74'

I. E. Poblete Zuniga← S. Rodriguez

79'

Sebastián Gallegos

80'

Lucas AssadiGoal cancelled

85'

M. Rivera← J. Fuentes

85'

A. Henriquez← E. Moreira

85'

J. Fernandez← S. Gallegos

86'

L. Di Yorio↳ L. Assadi

90+1'

E. Herrera←

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

D.Universidad

Overview

33%Possession67%

13Total Shots12

8Corners6

8Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots12

5On Target5

7Off Target4

1Blocked3

5Inside Box7

8Outside Box5

Passing

33%Possession67%

222Total Passes481

137Accurate Passes387

62%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls9

4Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2

Primera División: D. La Serena 1–1 Universidad de Chile

D. La Serena and Universidad de Chile drew 1-1 in Primera División on September 28, 2025.

Goals: J. Vargas (64'), L. Di Yorio (86').

Universidad de Chile controlled possession (67%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio La Portada in La Serena.

D. La Serena vs Universidad de Chile — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: D. La Serena 1–1 Universidad de Chile