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Universidad de Chile vs D. La Serena — Copa De La Liga 2026

Universidad de Chile
Universidad de Chile
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
D. La Serena
D. La Serena
3/20/2026Copa De La LigaCopa De La Liga · Group Stage - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Universidad de Chile45%
×Draw23%
D. La Serena32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universidad de Chile
1.83
D. La Serena
1.50

Universidad de Chile creates 22% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Universidad de Chile
1.33
D. La Serena
1.33

allows per match

Universidad de Chile
1.67
D. La Serena
2.33

finishing

Universidad de Chile+0.00on par
D. La Serena+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad de Chile ↓

D. La Serena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Universidad de Chile or draw
68%
Universidad de Chile or D. La Serena
77%
Draw or D. La Serena
55%

Winning margin

Universidad de Chile wins by 2+
25%
D. La Serena wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Universidad de Chile 1+ goals
84%
Universidad de Chile 2+ goals
54%
Universidad de Chile 3+ goals
28%
D. La Serena 1+ goals
78%
D. La Serena 2+ goals
44%
D. La Serena 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Universidad de Chile (draw refunded)
59%
D. La Serena (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad de Chile at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

D. La Serena away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad de Chile attack 1.33 + D. La Serena defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

D. La Serena attack 1.33 + Universidad de Chile defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Universidad de Chile scores more
45%
level
23%
D. La Serena scores more
32%

Universidad de Chile at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Universidad de Chile will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa De La Liga: Universidad de Chile 2–2 D. La Serena

Universidad de Chile and D. La Serena drew 2-2 in Copa De La Liga on March 20, 2026.