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Universidad Catolica vs Union La Calera — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Union La Calera
Union La Calera
J. Cifuente 75'
I. Díaz 49'
J. Fajardo 45+1', 3'
5/10/2024CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 4Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Universidad Catolica55%
×Draw29%
Union La Calera17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universidad Catolica
1.32
Union La Calera
0.59

Universidad Catolica creates 124% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

creates per match

Universidad Catolica
1.73
Union La Calera
0.58

allows per match

Universidad Catolica
0.60
Union La Calera
0.92

finishing

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par
Union La Calera+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad Catolica ↓

Union La Calera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Universidad Catolica or draw
83%
Universidad Catolica or Union La Calera
71%
Draw or Union La Calera
45%

Winning margin

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
26%
Union La Calera wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
73%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
38%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
15%
Union La Calera 1+ goals
45%
Union La Calera 2+ goals
12%
Union La Calera 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
77%
Union La Calera (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad Catolica at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Union La Calera away — creates 0.58, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad Catolica attack 1.73 + Union La Calera defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.32

Union La Calera attack 0.58 + Universidad Catolica defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Universidad Catolica scores more
55%
level
29%
Union La Calera scores more
17%

Universidad Catolica at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
J. FajardoUniversidad CatolicaUniversidad Catolica · M
8.9

Match Events

3'
J. Fajardo↳ I. Díaz
45+1'
J. Fajardo
49'
I. Díaz↳ A. Rodríguez
60'
M. Muñoz← L. Aued
60'
W. Ponce← E. Gigliotti
60'
E. Ferrario← R. Rebolledo
67'
E. Clavijo← L. Nieto
70'
D. Ulloa← E. Matus
72'
J. Castillo← L. Loor
72'
J. Cifuente← M. Díaz
75'
J. Cifuente↳ G. Anangonó
79'
R. Troya← F. Martínez
79'
J. Vivar← J. Fajardo
80'
E. Valencia← M. Cavalleri
88'
Ezequiel Parnisiari

Possession

64%Universidad

Shots

16Universidad

Pass accuracy

53%Universidad

Statistics

UniversidadUnion
Overview
64%Possession36%
16Total Shots11
8Corners2
6Fouls5
Shots
16Total Shots11
7On Target2
3Off Target7
6Blocked2
11Inside Box2
5Outside Box9
Passing
64%Possession36%
623Total Passes345
561Accurate Passes278
90%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
6Fouls5
0Yellow Cards1
4Offsides1

Match Recap: Universidad Catolica vs Union La Calera

Universidad Catolica beat Union La Calera 4-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 10, 2024.

Goals: J. Fajardo (3', 45+1'), I. Díaz (49'), J. Cifuente (75').

Universidad Catolica controlled possession (64%) and registered 16 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.