Union La Calera 0–1 Universidad Catolica

Union La Calera

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Universidad Catolica

I. Díaz 61'

4/11/2024

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Union La Calera39%

×Draw31%

Universidad Catolica30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union La CaleraExpected goals in this matchUniversidad Catolica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.90

Union La Calera

1.06

Universidad Catolica

0.90

Union La Calera creates 18% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 15 away

0.78

creates per match

1.13

0.67

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Union La Calera

0.78

Universidad Catolica

1.13

allows per match

Union La Calera

0.67

Universidad Catolica

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union La Calera+0.00on par

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union La Calera ↓

Universidad Catolica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Union La Calera or draw

70%

Union La Calera or Universidad Catolica

69%

Draw or Universidad Catolica

61%

Winning margin

Union La Calera wins by 2+

15%

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Union La Calera 1+ goals

65%

Union La Calera 2+ goals

29%

Union La Calera 3+ goals

9%

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

59%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

23%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Union La Calera (draw refunded)

56%

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union La Calera at home — creates 0.78, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union La Calera attack 0.78 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Universidad Catolica attack 1.13 + Union La Calera defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Union La Calera scores more

39%

level

31%

Universidad Catolica scores more

30%

Union La Calera at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Union La Calera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

R. Romo

Universidad Catolica · G

8.3

Match Events

49'

Nicolás Ferreyra

61'

I. Díaz↳ K. Quevedo

68'

M. Cavalleri← G. Hauche

71'

M. Díaz← L. Nieto

72'

J. Fajardo← K. Quevedo

77'

A. Rodríguez← I. Díaz

80'

R. Huerta← L. Aued

86'

J. Quiñónez← J. Cifuente

88'

W. Ponce← E. Ferrario

89'

Joshue Quinonez

90+1'

Fausto Grillo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnionUniversidad

Overview

52%Possession48%

20Total Shots11

11Corners3

11Fouls8

Shots

20Total Shots11

6On Target4

9Off Target5

5Blocked2

11Inside Box4

9Outside Box7

Passing

52%Possession48%

408Total Passes396

296Accurate Passes298

73%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3