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Union La Calera vs Universidad Catolica — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Union La Calera
Union La Calera
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
M. Vidangossy 72'
S. Sáez 28'
M. Cavalleri 6'
R. Rivas 88' (pen)
D. Clavijo 38'
5/24/2022CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 6Estadio Sausalito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Union La Calera39%
×Draw31%
Universidad Catolica30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union La Calera
1.06
Universidad Catolica
0.90

Union La Calera creates 18% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 15 away

creates per match

Union La Calera
0.78
Universidad Catolica
1.13

allows per match

Union La Calera
0.67
Universidad Catolica
1.33

finishing

Union La Calera+0.00on par
Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union La Calera ↓

Universidad Catolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Union La Calera or draw
70%
Union La Calera or Universidad Catolica
69%
Draw or Universidad Catolica
61%

Winning margin

Union La Calera wins by 2+
15%
Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Union La Calera 1+ goals
65%
Union La Calera 2+ goals
29%
Union La Calera 3+ goals
9%
Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
59%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
23%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Union La Calera (draw refunded)
56%
Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union La Calera at home — creates 0.78, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union La Calera attack 0.78 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Universidad Catolica attack 1.13 + Union La Calera defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Union La Calera scores more
39%
level
31%
Universidad Catolica scores more
30%

Union La Calera at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Union La Calera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
M. VidangossyUnion La CaleraUnion La Calera · M
7.9

Match Events

6'
M. Cavalleri
28'
S. Sáez
38'
D. Clavijo↳ A. Rodríguez
57'
Gonzalo Castellani
63'
B. Garrido← G. Castellani
63'
L. Passerini← M. Cavalleri
66'
J. Carabalí← G. Cortez
66'
A. Draper← W. Cevallos
69'
A. Ordóñez← Y. Mosquera
72'
M. Vidangossy↳ S. Sáez
76'
Brayan Garrido
76'
C. Pérez← N. Orellana
77'
I. Díaz← A. Rodríguez
77'
F. Martínez← C. Oña
78'
Anderson Ordóñez
87'
Erick Wiemberg
88'
R. RivasPenalty

Possession

45%Union

Shots

20Union

Pass accuracy

49%Union

Statistics

UnionUniversidad
Overview
45%Possession55%
20Total Shots13
6Corners1
19Fouls15
Shots
20Total Shots13
8On Target4
7Off Target7
5Blocked2
12Inside Box10
8Outside Box3
Passing
45%Possession55%
421Total Passes538
337Accurate Passes449
80%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
19Fouls15
3Yellow Cards1
4Offsides0

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Union La Calera 3–2 Universidad Catolica

Union La Calera beat Universidad Catolica 3-2 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 24, 2022.

Goals: M. Cavalleri (6'), S. Sáez (28'), D. Clavijo (38'), M. Vidangossy (72'), R. Rivas (88' pen).

Universidad Catolica controlled possession (55%) and registered 13 shots to 20.

The match was played at Estadio Sausalito in Viña del Mar.