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Universidad Catolica vs Manta FC — Liga Pro 2026

Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Manta FC
Manta FC
3/15/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 5Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Universidad Catolica59%
×Draw23%
Manta FC18%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universidad Catolica
1.83
Manta FC
0.90

Universidad Catolica creates 103% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 42 away

creates per match

Universidad Catolica
1.92
Manta FC
0.76

allows per match

Universidad Catolica
1.03
Manta FC
1.74

finishing

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par
Manta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad Catolica ↓

Manta FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Universidad Catolica or draw
82%
Universidad Catolica or Manta FC
77%
Draw or Manta FC
41%

Winning margin

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
34%
Manta FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
84%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
54%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
28%
Manta FC 1+ goals
59%
Manta FC 2+ goals
23%
Manta FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
77%
Manta FC (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad Catolica at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.03 · 132 matches

Manta FC away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.74 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad Catolica attack 1.92 + Manta FC defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.83

Manta FC attack 0.76 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Universidad Catolica scores more
59%
level
23%
Manta FC scores more
18%

Universidad Catolica at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universidad Catolica vs Manta FC

Universidad Catolica beat Manta FC 3-0 in Liga Pro on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.