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Manta FC vs Universidad Catolica — Liga Pro 2026

Manta FC
Manta FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
W. Chalá 10'
7/31/2021Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 2Estadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Manta FC33%
×Draw27%
Universidad Catolica40%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manta FC
1.21
Universidad Catolica
1.36

Universidad Catolica creates 12% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 134 away

creates per match

Manta FC
1.16
Universidad Catolica
1.42

allows per match

Manta FC
1.30
Universidad Catolica
1.26

finishing

Manta FC+0.00on par
Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manta FC ↓

Universidad Catolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Manta FC or draw
60%
Manta FC or Universidad Catolica
73%
Draw or Universidad Catolica
67%

Winning margin

Manta FC wins by 2+
14%
Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Manta FC 1+ goals
70%
Manta FC 2+ goals
34%
Manta FC 3+ goals
12%
Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
74%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
39%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Manta FC (draw refunded)
45%
Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manta FC at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.30 · 43 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.26 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manta FC attack 1.16 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Universidad Catolica attack 1.42 + Manta FC defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Manta FC scores more
33%
level
27%
Universidad Catolica scores more
40%

Universidad Catolica at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
W. Chalá↳ D. Armas
21'
G. Martinez
25'
J. Jaime
33'
Y. Mosquera
35'
D. Armas
37'
J. Quintero
60'
G. Bustamante← J. Quintero
64'
J. Carabali
66'
F. Martínez← W. Cevallos
66'
E. Farías← J. Tévez
68'
G. Bustamante
73'
K. Triviño← N. Prieto
74'
G. Anangono
74'
M. Romero← G. Martínez
78'
E. Farias
83'
J. Valencia← D. Armas
89'
C. Cuero← V. Angulo

Possession

56%Manta

Shots

5Manta

Statistics

MantaUniversidad
Overview
56%Possession44%
5Total Shots5
2Corners8
17Fouls26
Shots
5Total Shots5
3On Target2
2Off Target3
Passing
56%Possession44%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
17Fouls26
4Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Manta FC vs Universidad Catolica

Universidad Catolica beat Manta FC 1-0 in Liga Pro on July 31, 2021.

Goals: W. Chalá (10').

Manta FC controlled possession (56%) and registered 5 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Jocay in Manta.