Manta FC 4–2 Universidad Catolica: Result & Stats

Manta FC

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Universidad Catolica

7/12/2025

Liga Pro · Round 20Estadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Manta FC33%

×Draw27%

Universidad Catolica40%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manta FCExpected goals in this matchUniversidad Catolica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.36

Manta FC

1.20

Universidad Catolica

1.36

Universidad Catolica creates 13% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 132 away

1.16

creates per match

1.42

1.30

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Manta FC

1.16

Universidad Catolica

1.42

allows per match

Manta FC

1.30

Universidad Catolica

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manta FC+0.00on par

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manta FC ↓

Universidad Catolica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Manta FC or draw

60%

Manta FC or Universidad Catolica

73%

Draw or Universidad Catolica

67%

Winning margin

Manta FC wins by 2+

14%

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Manta FC 1+ goals

70%

Manta FC 2+ goals

34%

Manta FC 3+ goals

12%

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

74%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

39%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Manta FC (draw refunded)

45%

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manta FC at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.30 · 43 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.24 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manta FC attack 1.16 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.20

Universidad Catolica attack 1.42 + Manta FC defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Manta FC scores more

33%

level

27%

Universidad Catolica scores more

40%

Universidad Catolica at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff