Universidad Catolica 0–1 Libertad Asuncion

Universidad Catolica

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Libertad Asuncion

R. Bogarín 38'

3/10/2021

CONMEBOL Libertadores · 2nd RoundEstadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Universidad Catolica54%

×Draw31%

Libertad Asuncion16%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad CatolicaExpected goals in this matchLibertad Asuncion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.51

Universidad Catolica

1.22

Libertad Asuncion

0.51

Universidad Catolica creates 139% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 27 away

1.00

creates per match

0.81

0.20

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Universidad Catolica

1.00

Libertad Asuncion

0.81

allows per match

Universidad Catolica

0.20

Libertad Asuncion

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad Catolica ↓

Libertad Asuncion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–19%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–022%

1–111%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Universidad Catolica or draw

84%

Universidad Catolica or Libertad Asuncion

69%

Draw or Libertad Asuncion

46%

Winning margin

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

25%

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

70%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

34%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

12%

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals

40%

Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals

9%

Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

78%

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad Catolica at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Libertad Asuncion away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.44 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad Catolica attack 1.00 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Libertad Asuncion attack 0.81 + Universidad Catolica defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Universidad Catolica scores more

54%

level

31%

Libertad Asuncion scores more

16%

Universidad Catolica at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

G. De Los Santos

Universidad Catolica · D

8.2

Match Events

15'

Ayrton Cougo

21'

Alexander Mejía

37'

Juan Tévez

38'

R. Bogarín↳ I. Franco

46'

G. Cortez← K. Minda

46'

C. Oña← D. Armas

56'

Sebastián Ferreira

61'

Christian Oña

68'

A. Martínez← P. Delvalle

68'

H. Villalba← I. Franco

77'

J. Valencia← L. Alzugaray

78'

D. Bocanegra← R. Bogarín

79'

W. Cevallos← F. Martínez

83'

Adrián Martínez

84'

J. Enciso← A. Mejía

84'

D. Viera← S. Ferreira

90+2'

D. Jama← W. Chalá

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversidadLibertad

Overview

66%Possession34%

13Total Shots8

11Corners3

15Fouls17

Shots

13Total Shots8

3On Target6

9Off Target2

1Blocked0

7Inside Box3

6Outside Box5

Passing

66%Possession34%

553Total Passes293

472Accurate Passes193

85%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls17

2Yellow Cards4

0Offsides4

Match Recap: Universidad Catolica vs Libertad Asuncion

Libertad Asuncion beat Universidad Catolica 1-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on March 10, 2021.

Goals: R. Bogarín (38').

Universidad Catolica controlled possession (66%) and registered 13 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.

Universidad Catolica vs Libertad Asuncion — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Universidad Catolica vs Libertad Asuncion