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Libertad Asuncion vs Universidad Catolica — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
S. Ferreira 64', 32'
J. Tévez 82' (pen)
W. Chalá 61'
3/17/2021CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · 2nd RoundEstadio Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Libertad Asuncion44%
×Draw25%
Universidad Catolica30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad Asuncion
1.54
Universidad Catolica
1.23

Libertad Asuncion creates 25% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 6 away

creates per match

Libertad Asuncion
1.57
Universidad Catolica
1.17

allows per match

Libertad Asuncion
1.30
Universidad Catolica
1.50

finishing

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par
Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad Asuncion ↓

Universidad Catolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Libertad Asuncion or draw
70%
Libertad Asuncion or Universidad Catolica
75%
Draw or Universidad Catolica
56%

Winning margin

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+
22%
Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals
79%
Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals
45%
Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals
20%
Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
71%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
35%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)
59%
Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad Asuncion at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.57 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Universidad Catolica attack 1.17 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Libertad Asuncion scores more
44%
level
25%
Universidad Catolica scores more
30%

Libertad Asuncion at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Libertad Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
I. FrancoLibertad AsuncionLibertad Asuncion · M
7.9

Match Events

32'
S. Ferreira↳ I. Franco
48'
José Carabali
58'
Guillermo De los Santos
61'
W. Chalá↳ J. Carabalí
63'
K. Minda← G. De Los Santos
64'
S. Ferreira↳ I. Ramírez
71'
Christian Javier Báez
75'
E. Farías← G. Cortez
82'
P. Delvalle← I. Franco
82'
D. Viera← A. Bareiro
82'
J. TévezPenalty
88'
H. Villalba← R. Bogarín
89'
O. Cardozo← S. Ferreira

Possession

36%Libertad

Shots

12Libertad

Pass accuracy

47%Libertad

Statistics

LibertadUniversidad
Overview
36%Possession64%
12Total Shots19
2Corners9
9Fouls11
Shots
12Total Shots19
6On Target7
6Off Target8
0Blocked4
8Inside Box15
4Outside Box4
Passing
36%Possession64%
314Total Passes544
235Accurate Passes467
75%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls11
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Libertad Asuncion 2–2 Universidad Catolica

Libertad Asuncion and Universidad Catolica drew 2-2 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on March 17, 2021.

Goals: S. Ferreira (32', 64'), W. Chalá (61'), J. Tévez (82' pen).

Universidad Catolica controlled possession (64%) and registered 19 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Defensores del Chaco in Asunción.