Libertad Asuncion 2–0 Universidad Catolica

Libertad Asuncion

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Universidad Catolica

L. Sanabria 74'

Ó. Cardozo 49'

7/17/2024

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 32Estadio ueno Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Libertad Asuncion38%

×Draw29%

Universidad Catolica33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Libertad AsuncionExpected goals in this matchUniversidad Catolica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.06

Libertad Asuncion

1.17

Universidad Catolica

1.06

Libertad Asuncion creates 10% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 15 away

1.00

creates per match

1.13

1.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Libertad Asuncion

1.00

Universidad Catolica

1.13

allows per match

Libertad Asuncion

1.00

Universidad Catolica

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad Asuncion ↓

Universidad Catolica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Libertad Asuncion or draw

67%

Libertad Asuncion or Universidad Catolica

71%

Draw or Universidad Catolica

62%

Winning margin

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+

16%

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals

69%

Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals

33%

Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals

11%

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

65%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

29%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)

54%

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad Asuncion at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.00 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Universidad Catolica attack 1.13 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Libertad Asuncion scores more

38%

level

29%

Universidad Catolica scores more

33%

Libertad Asuncion at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Libertad Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

L. Sanabria

Libertad Asuncion · M

8.7

Match Events

26'

Luciano Nieto

33'

Arón Rodríguez

41'

Hernesto Caballero

49'

Ó. Cardozo↳ L. Melgarejo

68'

B. Palacios← K. Quevedo

69'

R. Santa Cruz← Ó. Cardozo

74'

L. Sanabria

75'

J. Cifuente← D. Romero

80'

A. Bareiro← L. Melgarejo

80'

H. Martínez← R. Lezcano

81'

Fausto Grillo

85'

M. Jacquet← L. Cardozo

86'

G. Aguilar← I. Franco

90'

J. Vivar← A. Rodríguez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LibertadUniversidad

Overview

45%Possession55%

18Total Shots4

8Corners5

10Fouls8

Shots

18Total Shots4

10On Target1

3Off Target3

5Blocked0

9Inside Box3

9Outside Box1

Passing

45%Possession55%

423Total Passes536

341Accurate Passes434

81%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves8

Discipline

10Fouls8

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Libertad Asuncion 2–0 Universidad Catolica

Libertad Asuncion beat Universidad Catolica 2-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on July 17, 2024.

Goals: Ó. Cardozo (49'), L. Sanabria (74').

Universidad Catolica controlled possession (55%) and registered 4 shots to 18.

The match was played at Estadio ueno Defensores del Chaco in Asunción.

Libertad Asuncion vs Universidad Catolica — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Libertad Asuncion 2–0 Universidad Catolica