Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 132+ matches
Universidad Catolica45%
LDU de Quito30%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Universidad Catolica creates 28% more chances
Season form · 132 home / 136 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Universidad Catolica ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Universidad Catolica at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.03 · 132 matches
LDU de Quito away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.15 · 136 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Universidad Catolica attack 1.92 + LDU de Quito defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.53
LDU de Quito attack 1.37 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.20
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Universidad Catolica at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Independiente del Valle
Macara
Leones del Norte
Delfin SC
Aucas
Emelec
Barcelona SCLDU de Quito
Guayaquil City FC
LibertadUniversidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
Mushuc Runa SC
Deportivo Cuenca
Manta FC
Orense SCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Universidad Catolica host LDU de Quito on Wednesday, 15 July 2026 at 22:00. The match is part of the Liga Pro 2026/2027 season.
Universidad Catolica 1 – 0 LDU de Quito
Universidad Catolica beat LDU de Quito 1-0 in Liga Pro on July 15, 2026.
Goals: M. Diaz (59').