LDU de Quito 2–3 Universidad Catolica

LDU de Quito

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Universidad Catolica

K. Minda 90'

J. Medina 37'

J. Fajardo 89'

G. Anangono 61'

M. Alonso 17'

12/19/2025

Copa Ecuador · FinalEstadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

LDU de Quito40%

×Draw24%

Universidad Catolica36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LDU de QuitoExpected goals in this matchUniversidad Catolica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.50

LDU de Quito

1.61

Universidad Catolica

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

2.33

creates per match

2.00

1.00

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

LDU de Quito

2.33

Universidad Catolica

2.00

allows per match

LDU de Quito

1.00

Universidad Catolica

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Universidad Catolica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw

64%

LDU de Quito or Universidad Catolica

76%

Draw or Universidad Catolica

60%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

20%

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

80%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

48%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

22%

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

78%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

44%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

53%

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 2.33 + Universidad Catolica defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.61

Universidad Catolica attack 2.00 + LDU de Quito defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

LDU de Quito scores more

40%

level

24%

Universidad Catolica scores more

36%

LDU de Quito at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

24'

28'

33'

37'

61'

66'

D. A. Romero Padilla← M. Alonso

68'

M. Estrada← F. Cornejo

78'

L. Pastran← L. Alzugaray

78'

A. Alvarado← L. Quinonez

79'

K. Minda← C. Gruezo

83'

L. Moreno← E. Clavijo

83'

83'

85'

89'

90+8'

90+3'

B. Palacios← J. Fajardo

90'

K. Minda

LDU

Universidad

12

Lara

29

⚽

Anangono

33

Canga

4

Chancello

30

▼

Mejia

5

Cacciabue

8

▼

Clavijo

28

▼

Diaz

9

Londono

7

⚽

▼

Fajardo

32

⚽

▼

22

14

30

4

33

▼

Quinonez

29

Leon

8

▼

Gruezo

20

▼

Cornejo

9

▼

Alzugaray

15

Villamil

16

⚽

Medina

Manager: Tiago Retzlaff Nunes

68'▲M. Estrada←▼F. Cornejo

78'▲L. Pastran←▼L. Alzugaray

78'▲A. Alvarado←▼L. Quinonez

79'▲K. Minda←▼C. Gruezo

LDU de Quito substitutes

12Villa2Villigua3Mina28Mercado5Minda23Diaz21Castillo25Ortiz27Mina7Pastran10Alvarado11Estrada

Manager: Diego Andrés Martínez Carrera

66'▲D. A. Romero Padilla←▼M. Alonso

83'▲L. Moreno←▼E. Clavijo

83'▲C. Medina←▼E. Mejia

83'▲F. Martinez←▼M. Diaz

90+3'▲B. Palacios←▼J. Fajardo

Universidad Catolica substitutes

1Valencia22Romo3Mosquera13Padilla15Moreno37Medina44Valencia10Martinez17Troya23Rodriguez14Sanchez18Palacios