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Universidad Catolica vs LDU de Quito — Liga Pro 2026

Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
10/5/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Championship Group - 1Olimpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Universidad Catolica45%
×Draw25%
LDU de Quito30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universidad Catolica
1.53
LDU de Quito
1.20

Universidad Catolica creates 28% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 136 away

creates per match

Universidad Catolica
1.92
LDU de Quito
1.37

allows per match

Universidad Catolica
1.03
LDU de Quito
1.15

finishing

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par
LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad Catolica ↓

LDU de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Universidad Catolica or draw
70%
Universidad Catolica or LDU de Quito
75%
Draw or LDU de Quito
55%

Winning margin

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
22%
LDU de Quito wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
78%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
45%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
20%
LDU de Quito 1+ goals
70%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
34%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
60%
LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad Catolica at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.03 · 132 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.15 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad Catolica attack 1.92 + LDU de Quito defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.53

LDU de Quito attack 1.37 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Universidad Catolica scores more
45%
level
25%
LDU de Quito scores more
30%

Universidad Catolica at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universidad Catolica vs LDU de Quito

Universidad Catolica and LDU de Quito drew 2-2 in Liga Pro on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Olimpico Atahualpa in Quito.