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Universidad Catolica vs Independiente del Valle — Liga Pro 2026

Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
6/29/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 18Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Universidad Catolica43%
×Draw25%
Independiente del Valle32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universidad Catolica
1.54
Independiente del Valle
1.29

Universidad Catolica creates 19% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 133 away

creates per match

Universidad Catolica
1.92
Independiente del Valle
1.56

allows per match

Universidad Catolica
1.03
Independiente del Valle
1.17

finishing

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par
Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad Catolica ↓

Independiente del Valle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Universidad Catolica or draw
68%
Universidad Catolica or Independiente del Valle
75%
Draw or Independiente del Valle
57%

Winning margin

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
21%
Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
79%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
45%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
20%
Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
72%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
37%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
57%
Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad Catolica at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.03 · 132 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.17 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad Catolica attack 1.92 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.54

Independiente del Valle attack 1.56 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Universidad Catolica scores more
43%
level
25%
Independiente del Valle scores more
32%

Universidad Catolica at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universidad Catolica vs Independiente del Valle

Independiente del Valle beat Universidad Catolica 3-0 in Liga Pro on June 29, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.