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Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica — Liga Pro 2026

Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
11/8/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Championship Group - 5Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Independiente del Valle46%
×Draw26%
Universidad Catolica28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente del Valle
1.50
Universidad Catolica
1.10

Independiente del Valle creates 36% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 132 away

creates per match

Independiente del Valle
1.77
Universidad Catolica
1.42

allows per match

Independiente del Valle
0.79
Universidad Catolica
1.24

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par
Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Universidad Catolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw
72%
Independiente del Valle or Universidad Catolica
74%
Draw or Universidad Catolica
54%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
23%
Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
78%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
44%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
19%
Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
67%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
30%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
63%
Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.79 · 133 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.24 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.77 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.50

Universidad Catolica attack 1.42 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more
46%
level
26%
Universidad Catolica scores more
28%

Independiente del Valle at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica

Universidad Catolica beat Independiente del Valle 2-0 in Liga Pro on November 8, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Banco Guayaquil in Quito.