Independiente del Valle 1–2 Universidad Catolica

Independiente del Valle

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Universidad Catolica

10/13/2025

Copa Ecuador · Quarter-finalsEstadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Independiente del Valle30%

×Draw26%

Universidad Catolica44%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente del ValleExpected goals in this matchUniversidad Catolica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.50

Independiente del Valle

1.20

Universidad Catolica

1.50

Universidad Catolica creates 25% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.50

creates per match

2.00

1.00

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Independiente del Valle

1.50

Universidad Catolica

2.00

allows per match

Independiente del Valle

1.00

Universidad Catolica

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Universidad Catolica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw

56%

Independiente del Valle or Universidad Catolica

74%

Draw or Universidad Catolica

70%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

13%

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

70%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

34%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

12%

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

78%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

44%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

41%

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.50 + Universidad Catolica defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.20

Universidad Catolica attack 2.00 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more

30%

level

26%

Universidad Catolica scores more

44%

Universidad Catolica at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff