Universidad Catolica vs Independiente del Valle — Liga Pro 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 7+ matches
Universidad Catolica43%
Independiente del Valle31%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Universidad Catolica creates 21% more chances
Season form · 7 home / 8 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Universidad Catolica ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Universidad Catolica at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.62 · 7 matches
Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.84, concedes 0.76 · 8 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Universidad Catolica attack 2.22 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.49
Independiente del Valle attack 1.84 + Universidad Catolica defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.23
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Universidad Catolica at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Independiente del Valle
Leones del Norte
Macara
Aucas
Barcelona SC
Delfin SC
Guayaquil City FCUniversidad Catolica
Emelec
LDU de Quito
Libertad
Mushuc Runa SC
Tecnico Universitario
Deportivo Cuenca
Orense SC
Manta FCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Shots
Statistics
Universidad Catolica host Independiente del Valle on Friday, 31 March 2023 at 22:30. The match is part of the Liga Pro 2026/2027 season.
Universidad Catolica 2 – 3 Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle beat Universidad Catolica 3-2 in Liga Pro on March 31, 2023.
Goals: A. Rodríguez (13'), M. Hoyos (23', 25'), C. Colmán (32'), L. Faravelli (55' pen).
The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.