Universidad Catolica 1–1 Independiente del Valle

Universidad Catolica

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Independiente del Valle

J. Cifuente 87'

E. Mera 53' (pen)

6/12/2018

Liga Pro · Round 17Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Universidad Catolica42%

×Draw25%

Independiente del Valle32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad CatolicaExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.25

Universidad Catolica

1.48

Independiente del Valle

1.25

Universidad Catolica creates 18% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

2.12

creates per match

1.78

0.72

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

Universidad Catolica

2.12

Independiente del Valle

1.78

allows per match

Universidad Catolica

0.72

Independiente del Valle

0.84

+0.63scores more than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Universidad Catolica+0.63scores more

Independiente del Valle+0.11scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad Catolica ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Universidad Catolica or draw

68%

Universidad Catolica or Independiente del Valle

75%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

58%

Winning margin

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

21%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

77%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

43%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

19%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

71%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

36%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

57%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad Catolica at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.72 · 8 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.78, concedes 0.84 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad Catolica attack 2.12 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.48

Independiente del Valle attack 1.78 + Universidad Catolica defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Universidad Catolica scores more

42%

level

25%

Independiente del Valle scores more

32%

Universidad Catolica at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'

E. MeraPenalty

65'

D. Buitrago← F. Martínez

76'

L. Escalada← W. Meneses

85'

J. Caicedo← R. Calderón

85'

S. Plaza← A. Cabeza

87'

J. Cifuente

89'

A. Landázuri← E. Mera

90+2'

F. Mejía← B. Arce

Universidad

Independiente

25

30

3

27

5

18

10

⚽

▼

Mera

16

Cangá

26

Franco

11

▼

Arce

9

▼

12

17

25

6

40

▼

Meneses

10

▼

Martínez

8

▼

Calderón

5

Oña

15

Cortez

16

⚽

Cifuente

20

Chala

Manager: S. Escobar

65'▲D. Buitrago←▼F. Martínez

76'▲L. Escalada←▼W. Meneses

85'▲J. Caicedo←▼R. Calderón

Universidad Catolica substitutes

27Buitrago7Escalada9Caicedo1Valero4Obando18Ayoví37Godoy

Manager: G. Schürrer

85'▲S. Plaza←▼A. Cabeza

89'▲A. Landázuri←▼E. Mera

90+2'▲F. Mejía←▼B. Arce

Independiente del Valle substitutes

52Plaza4Landázuri19Mejía13Recalde6Ayala17Corozo23Burbano