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Unirea Slobozia vs Petrolul Ploiesti — Liga I 2026

Unirea Slobozia
Unirea Slobozia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti
C. A. Albu 9'
G. Grozav 85'
R. Pop 65'
4/12/2026Liga ILiga I · Relegation Group - 4May 1 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Unirea Slobozia41%
×Draw28%
Petrolul Ploiesti32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unirea Slobozia
1.29
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.11

Unirea Slobozia creates 16% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 26 away

creates per match

Unirea Slobozia
1.10
Petrolul Ploiesti
0.80

allows per match

Unirea Slobozia
1.42
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.49

finishing

Unirea Slobozia+0.12scores more
Petrolul Ploiesti+0.01on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Slobozia ↓

Petrolul Ploiesti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Unirea Slobozia or draw
68%
Unirea Slobozia or Petrolul Ploiesti
72%
Draw or Petrolul Ploiesti
59%

Winning margin

Unirea Slobozia wins by 2+
18%
Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Unirea Slobozia 1+ goals
72%
Unirea Slobozia 2+ goals
37%
Unirea Slobozia 3+ goals
14%
Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals
67%
Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals
30%
Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Unirea Slobozia (draw refunded)
56%
Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Slobozia at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.42 · 23 matches

Petrolul Ploiesti away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.49 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Slobozia attack 1.10 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.29

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 0.80 + Unirea Slobozia defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Unirea Slobozia scores more
41%
level
28%
Petrolul Ploiesti scores more
32%

Unirea Slobozia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Unirea Slobozia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
R. PopaUnirea SloboziaUnirea Slobozia · G
8.9

Match Events

9'
C. A. Albu↳ P. Dulcea
13'
Teodor Lungu
17'
Esteban Orozco
44'
Florinel Ibrian
46'
A. Dorobantu← P. Dulcea
46'
V. Pop← D. Yanakov
46'
R. Hermann← A. Mateiu
59'
F. Prce← A. Dumitrescu
59'
A. Aymbetov← P. Papp
65'
R. Pop
67'
G. Dahan← R. Espinosa
76'
Andrei Dragu
76'
Marco Dulca
83'
V. Gheorghe← M. Dulca
85'
G. Grozav
87'
Gheorghe Grozav
89'
C. Barbut← F. Ibrian
89'
C. Ponde← T. Lungu
90+1'
Vlad Pop
90+9'
Guy DahanPenalty cancelled
90+3'
Adrian Chică-Roșă
90'
Raul Balbarau
90'
N. Boateng← G. Grozav

Possession

32%Unirea

Shots

6Unirea

Pass accuracy

42%Unirea

Statistics

UnireaPetrolul
Overview
32%Possession68%
6Total Shots22
0.44Expected Goals (xG)2.04
1Corners7
9Fouls18
Shots
6Total Shots22
2On Target11
2Off Target7
2Blocked4
4Inside Box12
2Outside Box10
Passing
32%Possession68%
231Total Passes484
145Accurate Passes416
63%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
9Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls18
4Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards0
3Offsides0

Liga I: Unirea Slobozia 1–2 Petrolul Ploiesti

Petrolul Ploiesti beat Unirea Slobozia 2-1 in Liga I on April 12, 2026.

Goals: C. A. Albu (9'), R. Pop (65'), G. Grozav (85').

Petrolul Ploiesti controlled possession (68%) and registered 22 shots to 6.

The match was played at May 1 Stadium in Slobozia.