Unirea Slobozia 1–0 Petrolul Ploiesti

Unirea Slobozia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Petrolul Ploiesti

C. Afalna 75'

9/21/2025

Liga I · Round 10May 1 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Unirea Slobozia41%

×Draw28%

Petrolul Ploiesti31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unirea SloboziaExpected goals in this matchPetrolul Ploiesti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.08

Unirea Slobozia

1.28

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.08

Unirea Slobozia creates 19% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 26 away

1.07

creates per match

0.80

1.35

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Unirea Slobozia

1.07

Petrolul Ploiesti

0.80

allows per match

Unirea Slobozia

1.35

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.49

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Unirea Slobozia+0.03on par

Petrolul Ploiesti+0.01on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Slobozia ↓

Petrolul Ploiesti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Unirea Slobozia or draw

69%

Unirea Slobozia or Petrolul Ploiesti

72%

Draw or Petrolul Ploiesti

59%

Winning margin

Unirea Slobozia wins by 2+

18%

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Unirea Slobozia 1+ goals

72%

Unirea Slobozia 2+ goals

37%

Unirea Slobozia 3+ goals

14%

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals

66%

Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals

29%

Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Unirea Slobozia (draw refunded)

57%

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Slobozia at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

Petrolul Ploiesti away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.49 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Slobozia attack 1.07 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.28

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 0.80 + Unirea Slobozia defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Unirea Slobozia scores more

41%

level

28%

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more

31%

Unirea Slobozia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Unirea Slobozia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

V. Hamdiu

Unirea Slobozia · M

7.9

Match Events

10'

40'

43'

61'

63'

63'

63'

70'

I. Coada← V. Pop

73'

A. Botogan← B. Doukansy

74'

Guilherme← Ricardinho

75'

C. Afalna

79'

A. Chica-Rosa← T. Jyry

80'

O. Correia←

84'

O. Safronov← C. Afalna

90'

Guilherme Soares

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnireaPetrolul

Overview

48%Possession52%

15Total Shots16

1.25Expected Goals (xG)0.71

3Corners4

6Fouls19

Shots

15Total Shots16

4On Target1

8Off Target9

3Blocked6

9Inside Box7

6Outside Box9

Passing

48%Possession52%

354Total Passes379

277Accurate Passes308

78%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls19

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2