Petrolul Ploiesti 1–0 Unirea Slobozia

Petrolul Ploiesti

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Unirea Slobozia

Ricardinho 90'

2/3/2026

Liga I · Round 25Stadionul Ilie Oană

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Petrolul Ploiesti46%

×Draw25%

Unirea Slobozia28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Petrolul PloiestiExpected goals in this matchUnirea Slobozia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.14

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.54

Unirea Slobozia

1.14

Petrolul Ploiesti creates 35% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 25 away

1.21

creates per match

0.89

1.38

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.21

Unirea Slobozia

0.89

allows per match

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.38

Unirea Slobozia

1.88

-0.53scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Petrolul Ploiesti-0.53scores less

Unirea Slobozia-0.09on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrolul Ploiesti ↓

Unirea Slobozia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Petrolul Ploiesti or draw

72%

Petrolul Ploiesti or Unirea Slobozia

75%

Draw or Unirea Slobozia

54%

Winning margin

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+

23%

Unirea Slobozia wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals

79%

Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals

45%

Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals

20%

Unirea Slobozia 1+ goals

68%

Unirea Slobozia 2+ goals

32%

Unirea Slobozia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)

62%

Unirea Slobozia (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrolul Ploiesti at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.38 · 22 matches

Unirea Slobozia away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.88 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 1.21 + Unirea Slobozia defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.54

Unirea Slobozia attack 0.89 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more

46%

level

25%

Unirea Slobozia scores more

28%

Petrolul Ploiesti at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Petrolul Ploiesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

D. Rusu

Unirea Slobozia · G

8.7

Match Events

7'

Valentin Gheorghe

46'

D. Paraschiv← R. Pop

46'

A. Chica-Rosa← V. Gheorghe

60'

A. Dorobantu← P. Dulcea

60'

G. Dahan← R. Espinosa

65'

C. Ponde← C. A. Albu

66'

Teodor Lungu

74'

A. Botogan←

76'

S. Hanca← M. Dulca

83'

R. Hermann← D. Dongmo

90'

Ricardinho↳ T. Jyry

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PetrolulUnirea

Overview

66%Possession34%

28Total Shots8

3.44Expected Goals (xG)0.67

14Corners3

6Fouls7

Shots

28Total Shots8

9On Target3

9Off Target2

10Blocked3

21Inside Box3

7Outside Box5

Passing

66%Possession34%

517Total Passes275

427Accurate Passes170

83%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

3Saves8

Discipline

6Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1