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Unirea Slobozia vs Oţelul — Liga I 2026

Unirea Slobozia
Unirea Slobozia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Oţelul
Oţelul
8/4/2025Liga ILiga I · Round 4May 1 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Unirea Slobozia36%
×Draw28%
Oţelul36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unirea Slobozia
1.17
Oţelul
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

creates per match

Unirea Slobozia
1.07
Oţelul
0.99

allows per match

Unirea Slobozia
1.35
Oţelul
1.26

finishing

Unirea Slobozia+0.03on par
Oţelul-0.19scores less

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Slobozia ↓

Oţelul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Unirea Slobozia or draw
64%
Unirea Slobozia or Oţelul
72%
Draw or Oţelul
64%

Winning margin

Unirea Slobozia wins by 2+
15%
Oţelul wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Unirea Slobozia 1+ goals
69%
Unirea Slobozia 2+ goals
33%
Unirea Slobozia 3+ goals
11%
Oţelul 1+ goals
69%
Oţelul 2+ goals
33%
Oţelul 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Unirea Slobozia (draw refunded)
50%
Oţelul (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Slobozia at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

Oţelul away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.26 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Slobozia attack 1.07 + Oţelul defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.17

Oţelul attack 0.99 + Unirea Slobozia defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Unirea Slobozia scores more
36%
level
28%
Oţelul scores more
36%

Unirea Slobozia at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Unirea Slobozia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
C. Dur-BozoancaOţelulOţelul · G
9.2

Match Events

4'
Alexandru Dinu
59'
F. Purece← R. Deaconu
59'
R. Rotund← P. Dulcea
61'
Patrick← A. Ciobanu
66'
A. Aganovic← C. Barbut
69'
Vadik Murria Soriano
72'
Joao Paulo← Andrezinho
72'
E. Bicfalvi← Paulinho
80'
E. Florescu← V. Pop
80'
C. Afalna← A. Said
82'
Florin Purece

Possession

47%Unirea

Shots

22Unirea

Pass accuracy

47%Unirea

Statistics

UnireaOţelul
Overview
47%Possession53%
22Total Shots8
1.38Expected Goals (xG)1.31
4Corners3
15Fouls14
Shots
22Total Shots8
7On Target4
5Off Target3
10Blocked1
9Inside Box7
13Outside Box1
Passing
47%Possession53%
353Total Passes400
252Accurate Passes316
71%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
4Saves7
Discipline
15Fouls14
2Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards1
0Offsides3

Liga I: Unirea Slobozia 0–0 Oţelul

Unirea Slobozia and Oţelul drew 0-0 in Liga I on August 4, 2025.

Oţelul controlled possession (53%) and registered 8 shots to 22.

The match was played at May 1 Stadium in Slobozia.