Oţelul 3–0 Unirea Slobozia: Result & Stats | Liga I

Oţelul

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Unirea Slobozia

Andrezinho 77'

Paulinho 21'

Conrado 13'

12/5/2025

Liga I · Round 19Stadionul Otelul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Oţelul56%

×Draw22%

Unirea Slobozia22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OţelulExpected goals in this matchUnirea Slobozia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.10

Oţelul

1.90

Unirea Slobozia

1.10

Oţelul creates 73% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 22 away

1.85

creates per match

0.94

1.26

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Oţelul

1.85

Unirea Slobozia

0.94

allows per match

Oţelul

1.26

Unirea Slobozia

1.94

-0.54scores less than expected

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

Oţelul-0.54scores less

Unirea Slobozia-0.17scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oţelul ↓

Unirea Slobozia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Oţelul or draw

78%

Oţelul or Unirea Slobozia

78%

Draw or Unirea Slobozia

44%

Winning margin

Oţelul wins by 2+

32%

Unirea Slobozia wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Oţelul 1+ goals

85%

Oţelul 2+ goals

56%

Oţelul 3+ goals

29%

Unirea Slobozia 1+ goals

67%

Unirea Slobozia 2+ goals

30%

Unirea Slobozia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Oţelul (draw refunded)

72%

Unirea Slobozia (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oţelul at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.26 · 16 matches

Unirea Slobozia away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.94 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oţelul attack 1.85 + Unirea Slobozia defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.90

Unirea Slobozia attack 0.94 + Oţelul defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Oţelul scores more

56%

level

22%

Unirea Slobozia scores more

22%

Oţelul at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Oţelul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

Paulinho

Oţelul · F

8.7

Match Events

13'

Conrado↳ N. Pedro

21'

30'

46'

59'

67'

67'

67'

77'

80'

A. Ciobanu← Andrezinho

80'

Patrick← N. Pedro

85'

Milen Zhelev

86'

A. Rus← M. Zhelev

86'

C. Chira← J. Lameira

86'

P. Dulcea← J. Papeau

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OţelulUnirea

Overview

63%Possession37%

13Total Shots10

2.39Expected Goals (xG)0.44

3Corners9

11Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots10

6On Target0

5Off Target9

2Blocked1

11Inside Box6

2Outside Box4

Passing

63%Possession37%

511Total Passes276

417Accurate Passes183

82%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls16

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2

Liga I: Oţelul 3–0 Unirea Slobozia

Oţelul beat Unirea Slobozia 3-0 in Liga I on December 5, 2025.

Goals: Conrado (13'), Paulinho (21'), Andrezinho (77').

Oţelul controlled possession (63%) and registered 13 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadionul Otelul in Galati.

Oţelul vs Unirea Slobozia — Liga I 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga I: Oţelul 3–0 Unirea Slobozia