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Unionistas de Salamanca vs Salamanca UDS — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Salamanca UDS
Salamanca UDS
12/13/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Campo de Futbol Reina Sofía

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Unionistas de Salamanca48%
×Draw31%
Salamanca UDS21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.18
Salamanca UDS
0.66

Unionistas de Salamanca creates 79% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 13 away

creates per match

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.44
Salamanca UDS
0.54

allows per match

Unionistas de Salamanca
0.78
Salamanca UDS
0.92

finishing

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par
Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unionistas de Salamanca ↓

Salamanca UDS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Unionistas de Salamanca or draw
79%
Unionistas de Salamanca or Salamanca UDS
69%
Draw or Salamanca UDS
52%

Winning margin

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
21%
Salamanca UDS wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
69%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
33%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
12%
Salamanca UDS 1+ goals
48%
Salamanca UDS 2+ goals
14%
Salamanca UDS 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
70%
Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unionistas de Salamanca at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.78 · 107 matches

Salamanca UDS away — creates 0.54, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 1.44 + Salamanca UDS defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.18

Salamanca UDS attack 0.54 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
48%
level
31%
Salamanca UDS scores more
21%

Unionistas de Salamanca at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Unionistas de Salamanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unionistas de Salamanca vs Salamanca UDS

Unionistas de Salamanca beat Salamanca UDS 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 13, 2020.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol Reina Sofía in Salamanca.