Unionistas de Salamanca 1–1 Salamanca UDS

Unionistas de Salamanca

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Salamanca UDS

Álex Albístegui 39'

Giovanni 15'

2/23/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26Pistas del Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Unionistas de Salamanca46%

×Draw25%

Salamanca UDS29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unionistas de SalamancaExpected goals in this matchSalamanca UDS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.23

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.60

Salamanca UDS

1.23

Unionistas de Salamanca creates 30% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.47

creates per match

1.00

1.47

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.47

Salamanca UDS

1.00

allows per match

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.47

Salamanca UDS

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unionistas de Salamanca ↓

Salamanca UDS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Unionistas de Salamanca or draw

71%

Unionistas de Salamanca or Salamanca UDS

75%

Draw or Salamanca UDS

54%

Winning margin

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+

24%

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals

80%

Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals

47%

Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals

22%

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals

71%

Salamanca UDS 2+ goals

35%

Salamanca UDS 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)

61%

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unionistas de Salamanca at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Salamanca UDS away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 1.47 + Salamanca UDS defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.60

Salamanca UDS attack 1.00 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more

46%

level

25%

Salamanca UDS scores more

29%

Unionistas de Salamanca at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Unionistas de Salamanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Giovanni

39'

Álex Albístegui

54'

Hugo Díaz← Edu Ubis

62'

D. Aguilar← F. Monarrez

71'

Iván Garrido← Guille Andrés

71'

M. Amouzou← Álex Albístegui

81'

Óscar González← Javi Navas

89'

U. Torres← Giovanni

Unionistas

Salamanca

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Jabi Luaces

71'▲Iván Garrido←▼Guille Andrés

71'▲M. Amouzou←▼Álex Albístegui

81'▲Óscar González←▼Javi Navas

Unionistas de Salamanca substitutes

GarridoAmouzouGonzálezAguileraPereiroVázquezLópez

54'▲Hugo Díaz←▼Edu Ubis

62'▲D. Aguilar←▼F. Monarrez

89'▲U. Torres←▼Giovanni

Salamanca UDS substitutes

DíazAguilarTorresSánchezAmaroMedinaOne

Match Recap: Unionistas de Salamanca vs Salamanca UDS

Unionistas de Salamanca and Salamanca UDS drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 23, 2020.

Goals: Giovanni (15'), Álex Albístegui (39').

The match was played at Pistas del Helmántico in Salamanca.

Unionistas de Salamanca vs Salamanca UDS — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Unionistas de Salamanca vs Salamanca UDS