Salamanca UDS 2–0 Unionistas de Salamanca

Salamanca UDS

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Unionistas de Salamanca

Giovanni 90+3', 85'

10/6/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Salamanca UDS42%

×Draw27%

Unionistas de Salamanca31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salamanca UDSExpected goals in this matchUnionistas de Salamanca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.16

Salamanca UDS

1.39

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.16

Salamanca UDS creates 20% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.15

creates per match

1.31

1.00

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Salamanca UDS

1.15

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.31

allows per match

Salamanca UDS

1.00

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca UDS ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Salamanca UDS or draw

69%

Salamanca UDS or Unionistas de Salamanca

73%

Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca

58%

Winning margin

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+

20%

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals

75%

Salamanca UDS 2+ goals

40%

Salamanca UDS 3+ goals

16%

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals

69%

Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals

32%

Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)

57%

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salamanca UDS at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca UDS attack 1.15 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.39

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 1.31 + Salamanca UDS defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Salamanca UDS scores more

42%

level

27%

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more

31%

Salamanca UDS at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

M. Galván← Hugo Díaz

66'

Iván Garrido← Álvaro Romero

74'

Giovanni← Rafa Mella

75'

David Gallego← M. Amouzou

84'

U. Torres← J. Chiapas

85'

Giovanni

86'

Dieguito← Javi Navas

90+3'

Giovanni

Salamanca

Unionistas

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Pablo Cortés

57'▲M. Galván←▼Hugo Díaz

74'▲Giovanni←▼Rafa Mella

84'▲U. Torres←▼J. Chiapas

Salamanca UDS substitutes

GalvánGiovanniTorresSánchezȚîrleaCalderónOne

Manager: Roberto Aguirre

66'▲Iván Garrido←▼Álvaro Romero

75'▲David Gallego←▼M. Amouzou

86'▲Dieguito←▼Javi Navas

Unionistas de Salamanca substitutes

GarridoGallegoDieguitoSantosNavaBlaiseHernández