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Unionistas de Salamanca vs Real Valladolid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Valladolid II
Real Valladolid II
3/20/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 28Campo de Futbol Reina Sofía

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Unionistas de Salamanca50%
×Draw26%
Real Valladolid II24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.52
Real Valladolid II
0.97

Unionistas de Salamanca creates 57% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 31 away

creates per match

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.44
Real Valladolid II
1.16

allows per match

Unionistas de Salamanca
0.78
Real Valladolid II
1.61

finishing

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par
Real Valladolid II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unionistas de Salamanca ↓

Real Valladolid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Unionistas de Salamanca or draw
76%
Unionistas de Salamanca or Real Valladolid II
74%
Draw or Real Valladolid II
50%

Winning margin

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
25%
Real Valladolid II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
78%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
45%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
20%
Real Valladolid II 1+ goals
62%
Real Valladolid II 2+ goals
25%
Real Valladolid II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
67%
Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unionistas de Salamanca at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.78 · 107 matches

Real Valladolid II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 1.44 + Real Valladolid II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.52

Real Valladolid II attack 1.16 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
50%
level
26%
Real Valladolid II scores more
24%

Unionistas de Salamanca at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Unionistas de Salamanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unionistas de Salamanca vs Real Valladolid II

Unionistas de Salamanca and Real Valladolid II drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol Reina Sofía in Salamanca.