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Real Valladolid II vs Unionistas de Salamanca — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Valladolid II
Real Valladolid II
CANC
00:00
Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
4/26/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 35Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Real Valladolid II57%
×Draw23%
Unionistas de Salamanca21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Valladolid II
1.84
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.01

Real Valladolid II creates 82% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

Real Valladolid II
2.07
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.31

allows per match

Real Valladolid II
0.71
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.62

finishing

Real Valladolid II+0.00on par
Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Valladolid II ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Real Valladolid II or draw
79%
Real Valladolid II or Unionistas de Salamanca
77%
Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca
43%

Winning margin

Real Valladolid II wins by 2+
33%
Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Real Valladolid II 1+ goals
84%
Real Valladolid II 2+ goals
55%
Real Valladolid II 3+ goals
28%
Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
64%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
27%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)
73%
Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Valladolid II at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Valladolid II attack 2.07 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.84

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 1.31 + Real Valladolid II defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Real Valladolid II scores more
57%
level
23%
Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
21%

Real Valladolid II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Real Valladolid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Valladolid II vs Unionistas de Salamanca — Match Preview

Real Valladolid II face Unionistas de Salamanca on April 26, 2020 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Real Valladolid II host Unionistas de Salamanca at Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.