Real Valladolid II 0–0 Unionistas de Salamanca

Real Valladolid II

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Unionistas de Salamanca

10/2/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Real Valladolid II37%

×Draw28%

Unionistas de Salamanca35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Valladolid IIExpected goals in this matchUnionistas de Salamanca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.19

Real Valladolid II

1.23

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 106 away

1.20

creates per match

0.91

1.47

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Real Valladolid II

1.20

Unionistas de Salamanca

0.91

allows per match

Real Valladolid II

1.47

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Valladolid II+0.00on par

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Valladolid II ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Real Valladolid II or draw

65%

Real Valladolid II or Unionistas de Salamanca

72%

Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca

63%

Winning margin

Real Valladolid II wins by 2+

16%

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Real Valladolid II 1+ goals

71%

Real Valladolid II 2+ goals

35%

Real Valladolid II 3+ goals

13%

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals

70%

Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals

33%

Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)

51%

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Valladolid II at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Valladolid II attack 1.20 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 0.91 + Real Valladolid II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Real Valladolid II scores more

37%

level

28%

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more

35%

Real Valladolid II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Real Valladolid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

F. Roman

14'

S. Erimuya

18'

B. Ivaylov

46'

Pitu Doncel← De la Nava

46'

Cris Montes← Rayco Rodríguez

46'

Mandi← Héctor Nespral

67'

De Miguel← Pablo Espina

72'

Roberto Arroyo← Dali

72'

Víctor Narro← Fran Rivera

75'

Mario Maroto← Moha

75'

Palomeque← Kike Ríos

76'

A. Marin

82'

Borja Herrera← Íñigo Muñoz

88'

Castri← Slavy

90+2'

R. Arroyo

Real

Unionistas

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Manager: Júlio Baptista

72'▲Roberto Arroyo←▼Dali

72'▲Víctor Narro←▼Fran Rivera

75'▲Mario Maroto←▼Moha

75'▲Palomeque←▼Kike Ríos

88'▲Castri←▼Slavy

Real Valladolid II substitutes

ArroyoNarroMarotoPalomequeCastriJoséRosaMorenoLópezSeguraSocorroMeykher

Manager: Dani Mori

46'▲Pitu Doncel←▼De la Nava

46'▲Cris Montes←▼Rayco Rodríguez

46'▲Mandi←▼Héctor Nespral

67'▲De Miguel←▼Pablo Espina

82'▲Borja Herrera←▼Íñigo Muñoz

Unionistas de Salamanca substitutes

DoncelMontesMandiMiguelHerreraAwuduPereiroAdeniahSánchezCruzBlochLama