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Unionistas de Salamanca vs Arenas Getxo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Arenas Getxo
Arenas Getxo
10/27/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Pistas del Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Unionistas de Salamanca40%
×Draw26%
Arenas Getxo34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.36
Arenas Getxo
1.23

Unionistas de Salamanca creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 27 away

creates per match

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.47
Arenas Getxo
1.00

allows per match

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.47
Arenas Getxo
1.26

finishing

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par
Arenas Getxo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unionistas de Salamanca ↓

Arenas Getxo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Unionistas de Salamanca or draw
66%
Unionistas de Salamanca or Arenas Getxo
74%
Draw or Arenas Getxo
60%

Winning margin

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
18%
Arenas Getxo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
74%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
39%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
16%
Arenas Getxo 1+ goals
71%
Arenas Getxo 2+ goals
35%
Arenas Getxo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
54%
Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unionistas de Salamanca at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Arenas Getxo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 1.47 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.36

Arenas Getxo attack 1.00 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
40%
level
26%
Arenas Getxo scores more
34%

Unionistas de Salamanca at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Unionistas de Salamanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Unionistas de Salamanca 1 – 2 Arenas Getxo

Arenas Getxo beat Unionistas de Salamanca 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Pistas del Helmántico in Salamanca.